In summary
Polymarket predicts a 70% probability of XRP ETF approval, fueled by increased optimism after XRP reached $3.39 today.
Trump’s crypto-friendly policies and SEC leadership changes are expected to ease hurdles for XRP ETFs in 2025.
Four XRP ETF applications await approval, with lingering opposition from the SEC still considered the biggest obstacle.
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The probability of XRP ETF approval has risen to 70% today on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market.
This optimism comes after XRP reached an all-time high earlier today, hitting $3.39 for the first time in nearly seven years.
See more: Thailand to Block Polymarket Over Illegal Crypto Betting
Increased Optimism for XRP ETF Approval
With the success of the Bitcoin ETF in the US in 2024, many asset management firms filed applications with the SEC for various altcoin ETFs. The current bull market and Trump’s strong support for the crypto industry have increased retail investor demand for digital asset-based funds. This optimism is reflected in XRP’s market performance, as the altcoin hit a record high today after surging by over 40% this week
[Major investment banks like JPMorgan recently predicted that Solana and XRP ETFs could attract over $14 billion in inflows in 2025. Based on this projection, there is strong anticipation that an XRP ETF could be approved this year.
“JPMorgan says alt-coin ETFs will pull in $14B in their first year, $3-6B for Solana and $4-8B for XRP. My team hasn’t put out any official estimates but this seems like a pretty reasonable guess. Gotta get approved first though,”
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas wrote.
Meanwhile, the odds on Polymarket also increased to 70% today. This is notable because a week ago the odds were below 50%. Clearly, the crypto community is growing increasingly confident that an XRP ETF is only a matter of time.
See more: CFTC Subpoenas Coinbase in Relation to Polymarket
The SEC Remains the Biggest Hurdle
Currently, four XRP ETF applications are pending in the US – WisdomTree, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and 21Shares. The biggest hurdle for these applications is the SEC. Based on the regulator’s latest appeal, the SEC is clearly still pushing for US lawmakers to deem XRP a security. However, this challenge may not last long.
With President-elect Trump’s inauguration next week, Gary Gensler, the current SEC chairman and Ripple’s biggest foe, is expected to resign. Trump is also expected to overhaul the SEC’s regulatory framework. As such, there is high anticipation that the SEC will drop its long-running lawsuit against Ripple. That’s why the possibility of an XRP ETF is becoming unavoidable,
“As expected, the SEC’s appeal brief is just a rehash of the same failed arguments – and will likely be abandoned by the next administration. We’ll respond formally in due course. For now, know this: the SEC lawsuit is just noise. A new era of crypto regulation that fosters innovation is coming, and Ripple is thriving,” Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty wrote
However, it is almost certain that XRP will not be the first altcoin to have an ETF in 2025. That privilege will likely go to Litecoin. As BeInCrypto previously reported, Nasdaq has filed to list Valkyrie’s Litecoin ETF.
Overall, the possibility of an XRP ETF is growing stronger, but regulators still need to address several hurdles to achieve this.
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